- Positions
- 5
Opened position · Apr 6, 2026
Went long $AAOI at $110, 492% above the run's low. The trade is down 25% from entry.
Entry to peak
+113%Entry
$110
Apr 6, 2026
Peak
$234
May 13, 2026
Current price
$82
−25%now
- Entry vs the low
- 492% above the low
- low $19 on Nov 21, 2025
- Max drop since entry
- −72%
- May 13 → Oct 22, 2026
- Current price
- $82
- −25% from entry
The journey
Trade 1
LongEntry to peak +113%Ranked trade30D return +65%Opened position
Long
AAOIEntry: $11030D return: +65%Apr 6, 2026, 14:46 UTC
The photonics sector has been the greatest trade most investors have never heard of. Here are the one year returns of some of my favorite socks from the sector and their role in photonics. $LITE — +1,570% $AAOI — +975% $AXTI — +3,600% $AEHR — +650% $COHR — +410% These are the picks and shovels of AI. $LITE — Lumentum. Makes the high powered lasers and optical components inside AI data center transceivers. $NVDA invested $2 billion directly into the company. Revenue growing 85% year over year. Optical circuit switches sold out through end of 2027. Rosenblatt price target $900. $AAOI — Applied Optoelectronics. Makes 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers for hyperscale data centers. Builds its own lasers in-house in Texas which $LITE and $COHR cannot do. Revenue growing 130% year over year. $124 million in new hyperscale orders in the last few weeks alone. CEO 99% confident in $1 billion revenue in 2026. $AXTI — AXT Inc. Makes the indium phosphide substrates that the lasers inside every optical transceiver are built on. You cannot make the laser without the wafer. You cannot make the wafer without $AXTI. 40% global InP market share. Demand expected to double in 2026. The most upstream and most essential chokepoint in the entire photonics supply chain. $AEHR — Aehr Test Systems. Tests photonic chips and silicon carbide wafers before they ship. Every transceiver needs to be validated before it goes into a data center. You cannot skip this step. As volume scales $AEHR’s revenue scales directly with it. $COHR — Coherent. The industrial scale laser foundry powering the entire sector. 25% global market share in optical transceivers. $NVDA invested $2 billion. S&P 500. CPO switches sold out through 2027. Every GPU cluster on earth needs to move data between chips at speeds copper cannot handle. These five companies are the only way to do it. The AI buildout does not happen without them. The world is moving from 800G to 1.6T to 3.2T. Each step is a new upgrade cycle. Each upgrade cycle is another catalyst.
Added to position
Long
AAOIPrice: $14730D return: +65%Apr 28, 2026, 03:04 UTC
Trade 2
LongEntry to peak +21%Closed +9%Opened position
Long
AAOIEntry: $171Close P&L: +9%Jun 1, 2026, 14:23 UTC
Just entered $AAOI for my first ever trade in this full port challenge and I think the fear in this stock has created the opportunity. $AAOI is down heavy from recent highs and it has not been alone. The entire photonics and optical networking sector has been getting absolutely killed over the last few weeks. $AAOI got caught in that selloff and then had its own dilution overhang stacked on top of it. The combination sent it well off its all time highs. But step back and look at what actually changed about the business. Nothing. 2025 revenue grew 83% to a record $456 million. 2026 guidance raised to over $1.1 billion. $324 million in confirmed 800G and 1.6T hyperscale orders sitting on the books. Capacity expansions across Texas and the Pearland facility coming online. Management guided that supply will lag demand all the way through 2027. The order book is bigger than it has ever been. The dilution scares people. The sector selloff scares people. That fear is exactly what created this entry. We have watched this stock do this before. It sells off on dilution and sector weakness, and then it re-rates right back as the buyers who understand the order book step in. The optical networking tailwind is not slowing down. Goldman called it the next mega trend in AI infrastructure. As AI clusters scale the demand for exactly what $AAOI makes only accelerates. The sector got hit. $AAOI got hit harder. The fundamentals never moved. This is my full port challenge pick because the setup is exactly what I look for. A great business knocked down by fear that has nothing to do with the actual fundamentals. The re-rate back toward all time highs is coming and I want to be positioned before it does.
Closed position
Long
AAOIExit: $186Close P&L: +9%Jun 3, 2026, 18:48 UTC
Trade 3
LongEntry to peak +20%30D return −30%Opened position
Long
AAOIEntry: $17430D return: −30%Jun 6, 2026, 20:00 UTC
My favorite names in every sector right now. The full conviction list, three deep in each. Humanoid Robotics $AMBA $OUST $VPG AI Infrastructure $NBIS $PENG $CRDO Defense $EOS.AX $MRLN $KRKNF Data Center Power $CEG $BE $FCEL Photonics & Optical $AAOI $LITE $COHR Memory & Semiconductors $MU $MX $SNDK Small Cap Data Center $VIVO $DGXX $KEEL Quantum Computing $INFQ $LAES $IONQ Satellite & Space $ASTS $RKLB $OPTX Different sectors. One theme tying them together. Real businesses, real catalysts, and valuations the market has not fully caught up to yet. This is where I am positioned for the next few years.
Trade 4
LongEntry to peak +80%30D return +19%Opened position
Long
AAOIEntry: $9030D return: +19%Jul 30, 2026, 17:31 UTC
Photonics names look incredibly attractive here, and they all took a hit as the ramp just started. Look at the trajectory across the group. $LITE grew revenue 90% year over year last quarter and guided the current one to nearly a billion. Jefferies models $5.6 billion of CY27
Trade 5
LongEntry to peak +13%Closed −21%Opened position
Long
AAOIEntry: $116Close P&L: −21%Oct 5, 2026, 13:30 UTC
The ATM overhang is what's been holding $AAOI back all year. $1.7B of shares sold into the market while every other optics name ran. That's done now. Fully funded and nothing left to sell. Send us to new ATHs now. t.co/IoYq9Nx6t4
Closed position
Long
AAOIExit: $92Close P&L: −21%Oct 14, 2026, 13:48 UTC
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