Michael Sikand

Michael Sikand

@michaelsikand

Jun 14, 2026, 18:47 UTC

Guys we need to talk about $AAOI... $AAOI is one of the most controversial stocks in the world and I enjoy the disagreement. Pretty cool that's it up 3x since I went long with many thousands of investors riding it with me up some portion of that gain on @joinautopilot. But what's cooler is that I think it's still asymmetrical here. So let's break it down and figure out where we're at $170/share today. Management argues they can get to $471M in monthly transceiver revenue by Q2 2027. If you're new to photonics, this is because transceivers are one of the hottest commodities in data centers right now (they translate electricity to light) and 3 hyperscalers are working with $AAOI on this. At management's 40% gross margin target, that's ~$5.6B in annualized revenue. Run past opex, interest, tax, dilution, we might land around $14-15 in EPS on that run rate. That's a 2028 number though because 2027 is the ramp mid year, so let's call it bull case $9 of EPS in 2027. So at $170/share right now, on these calcs, you're paying 19x 2027 earnings, falling dramatically to 12x for 2028. Don't trust management? Fair. Haircut both the revenue and the margin target by 30%, let's say we get to $4B at a 28% gross margin instead of $5.6B at 40%. You still land near ~$6 in EPS, just over the analyst mean estimate for 2027E. That's 28x at $170, still WAY cheaper than $LITE and $COHR trade right now. $LITE is at a 50x NTM forward PE per Fiscal AI. $COHR is at 47x NTM forward PE per Fiscal AI. You're paying a fraction of the multiples of its peer group for a faster growing business because execution is still a huge question mark. If you are an asymmetric trader like me, you might have a large concentrated position in $AAOI for these reasons. I do believe the stock at $170 is still a solid entry point and I began loading again heavily in the 160's.

Michael Sikand

@michaelsikand

Jul 6, 2026, 20:17 UTC

$20M trade update. I just updated my "Photonics Is Next" AI infra portfolio on @joinautopilot followed by 3300+ U.S. retail investors and $21.9M in connected assets as of 7/6. This portfolio, which is also overseen by my partner @KawzInvests, has been a major part of the rise in my profile as an investor. On 6/2, my optical basket peaked at 123.5% all-time returns, achieving those gains in under 6 months, as computed by Autopilot's software. For context, the fund achieved this return holding a diverse basket of stocks, an incredible outcome for retail investors passively following. I'm extremely proud of our work on this product. There exists no optical ETF currently for retail investors despite a rush by issuers to cash in on the hype. My picks were launched back in February, providing retail investors a 6 month window to front run the category and get staked into the next AI bottleneck without the complexity of individual stock picking. Despite the recent sell off, the portfolio is still up 45% year to date, roughly 4.5x the S&P 500. $LAZR and $LYTE are two ETFs going to launch soon by major players, which should attract billions in AUM. However, I believe my allocations are superior and that my picks will outperform them with lower fees. So where are we now? Recently, the optical sector has gotten slammed based in my view mainly on sentiment, institutional profit taking, and disputed rumors from a well-known research firm on delays to next-gen architecture. Photonics Is Next is down 29.6% in the last month and 16.8% in just the last week. That's why I think it's the perfect time to re-balance, add more weight to higher conviction positions, and add one brand new position I missed earlier on. This rebalance today adds Corning ($GLW) as a new 10.00% position. Down 13% in five days. Now anchored by three hyperscale relationships (a 10x-capacity NVIDIA partnership, a Meta deal worth up to $6B, and a multi billion dollar Amazon agreement). Three names get boosted: AAOI (12.30%→15.00%), LITE (14.75%→15.00%), and AEHR (4.26%→5.00%). Six positions are trimmed: TSEM (11.11%→10.00%), COHR (16.07%→15.00%), AXTI (8.58%→5.00%), CIEN (11.39%→10.00%), MRVL (11.11%→5.00%), and VIAV (10.43%→10.00%). For catalysts that could create upside, I'm watching: - Hyperscale Capex Guides In Upcoming Earnings - Earnings From All Optical Names In The Basket Particularly $COHR $LITE $AAOI - The launch of mainstream optical ETFs $LAZR and $LYTE $GLW $AAOI $LITE $AEHR $TSEM $COHR $AXTI $CIEN $MRVL $VIAV -- See link in comments to follow the portfolio using the Autopilot app. Pay attention to disclaimers on the image of this post and the Autopilot app.

Michael Sikand

@michaelsikand

Jul 6, 2026, 23:25 UTC

Be careful on $AAOI. There's a crazy amount of resentment from institutions such as B. Riley who MISSED the stock and were bearish as low as $15. Now making a massive intellectual leap on a nonsensical optical short thesis and literally name dropping $AAOI out of bitterness? Spite? For the virality? You really can't make up the misinformation and FUD in photonics right now it's just unbelievable. Earnings should put everyone in their place very soon. Nothing has changed in the fact that there isn't enough photonics tech in the world today and won't be for years. Everyone in my paid Substack + Discord knows I've been buying $AAOI all the way down from $160 in my trading portfolio, most recently loading at $114. I also increased $AAOI in my "Photonics Is Next" portfolio today. No asymmetry without FUD - NAWF.

Michael Sikand

@michaelsikand

Jul 16, 2026, 20:17 UTC

Dropped $100K into the market here into a fresh "I bought the dip" account. Risk reward looks fantastic to just go long a big list of my favorite stocks, some down 30-50%. I see no reason to concentrate this capital when there's this many deals across themes. Indexes are holding up well, the AI buildout is accelerating, earnings are coming up, and economic data is relatively strong. This looks like a generational retail shakeout, where leverage is just getting unwound, and sentiment is driving not facts and data. I feel like we might be towards the back end of this high beta rinse. But of course my timing could be wrong. Things could fall further on Iran escalation which of course has a knock on effect with interest rates, which could certainly mean major pain ahead. Adding to each of my 6 @joinautopilot portfolios equally and then to my favorite international stocks, other picks, and microcaps not reflected there. Memory Supercycle ($14,286): $MU 5.78% $SNDK 5.13% $EWY 2.25% blockstack:native 0.59% $WDC 0.53% Photonics Is Next ($14,286): $LITE 2.32% $COHR 1.99% $AAOI 1.95% $TSEM 1.78% $CIEN 1.46% $VIAV 1.39% $GLW 1.29% $AEHR 0.92% $MRVL 0.60% $AXTI 0.57% Asymmetrical Bets ($14,286): $AAOI 3.38% $NBIS 3.36% $MAGS 2.74% $SONY 2.64% $APP 2.17% AI Factories ($14,286): $NBIS 4.14% $CRWV 2.18% $CLSK 1.47% $HUT 1.30% $BRUN 1.16% $SHAZ 1.15% $CORZ 0.74% $WULF 0.72% $GLXY 0.72% $APLD 0.71% Space Economy ($14,286): $RKLB 2.86% $ASTS 2.52% $SPCX 2.34% $MDA 1.93% $FLY 1.67% $BKSY 1.52% $LUNR 1.46% Modern Warfare ($14,286): $AVAV 5.33% $AVEX 3.92% $KTOS 2.61% $LASR 1.56% $ONDS 0.87% Other Bets ($14,286): KRKNF 1.02% LPTH 1.02% QCOM 1.02% ORCL 1.02% BE 1.02% NOK 1.02% OPTX 1.02% RDDT 1.02% LTRX 1.02% OUST 1.02% CCXI 1.02% SECZ 1.02% CRCL 1.02% ERII 1.02% This is NOT financial advice. I am not a licensed investment advisor. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before investing. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Michael Sikand

@michaelsikand

Aug 7, 2026, 19:54 UTC

@dsulli50275 @joinautopilot There was no major rotation. We just trimmed our AAOI after it went up 50% week, in favor of stocks with less binary earnings risk.

Michael Sikand

@michaelsikand

Aug 31, 2026, 20:35 UTC

@beth_cronk I reduced at $140 due to strong, temporary euphoria post Leopold unwind. More focused on $LITE, which has held the rally much better, that is a core long now.