- Positions
- 2
Opened position · May 3, 2026
AAOIEntry: $183Current return: −55%Went long $AAOI at $183, 891% above the run's low. The trade is down 55% from entry.
Entry to peak
+27%Entry
$183
May 3, 2026
Peak
$234
May 13, 2026
Current price
$82
−55%now
- Entry vs the low
- 891% above the low
- low $19 on Nov 21, 2025
- Max drop since entry
- −72%
- May 13 → Oct 22, 2026
- Current price
- $82
- −55% from entry
The journey
Trade 1
LongEntry to peak +27%Ranked trade30D return −2%Opened position
Long AAOIEntry: $18330D return: −2%May 3, 2026, 08:16 UTC
This has so far turned out to be quite accurate? A lot of people shied away from a stock like $AAOI after it ran +150% in March but the upside was still clear imo. Here we are today at $15B market cap and here's where I think we head from here. In the near term now, this isn't a stock I'd personally be buying but it's one I'd be happy to hold. Near term the risk to reward is far less now. -> Trading far above any MA's. -> Trading at 16x NTM sales. -> Trading at 150x NTM EBITDA. I don't care how bullish you are on optics, these aren't sustainable multiples. But if you bought $AAOI back in March like I outlined then holding here makes sense. $4.5B annualized run rate is still management's public goal. Maybe we get an update on this in this weeks earnings call? At $4.5B annualized run rate, you only need $AAOI to trade at ~8x sales to get to a $35B market cap at that revenue run rate. That's attainable for sure over the next 12-24 months.
Added to position · 3 times
Long AAOIAvg price: $12730D return: −2%Jul 3, 2026, 13:12 UTC to Aug 7, 2026, 15:27 UTC
Show all 3 trades
Added at $121Jul 3, 2026, 13:12 UTC
Getting my reps in on $AAOI at $120. Just like I did with $CRDO at ~$100 Or $LMND ~$30 Or $OUST ~$23 Let me throw this data out there for you: Compute performance has improved ~60,000x over the last 20 years. Electrical interconnect bandwidth has grown 30x over that same time frame. Optics right now is the only answer. Every major supplier in the chain is capacity-constrained: -> Innolight "can barely keep up with demand." -> $COHR and $AAOI are building as fast as they can. -> $TSEM is investing $650M to 3x silicon-photonics shipments by mid-2026. -> $STM has a +$1B multi-year contract with AWS. And then $AAOI specifically: -> 400,000/month for CPO production by 2027 -> 930,000/month for 800G/1.6T pluggable capacity by end of 2027. Honestly, one of the main bear cases for me here is that $AAOI has become a retail favorite. But I believe for good reason.
Added at $121Jul 3, 2026, 21:31 UTC
Added at $138Aug 7, 2026, 15:27 UTC Retrospective trade
Two stocks I added to 3 days ago: $USAR +10% today $AAOI +11% today Receipts 👇 t.co/XdJXlwftZD
Trade 2
LongEntry to peak +22%Current return +22%Opened position
Long AAOIEntry: $68Current return: +22%Oct 26, 2026, 09:09 UTC
@ahmetin81 Not sure if you’ve noticed… but everything is down at the moment? I remain bullish and I’ll add as and when I see fit.
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More journeys on $AAOI
Serenity
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Daniel Romero
+426%Went long $AAOI at $44, 140% above the run's low. The trade is up 85% from entry.
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Ariel Hernandez
+412%Went long $AAOI at $46, 147% above the run's low. The trade is up 80% from entry.
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