- Positions
- 3
Closed position · Apr 2, 2026 to Jun 1, 2026
AAOIEntry: $88Close P&L: +109%Went long $AAOI at $88, 378% above the run's low, and closed it at $185 for a 109% gain.
Entry to peak
+165%Entry
$88
Apr 2, 2026
Peak
$234
May 13, 2026
Closed
$185
+109%Jun 1, 2026
- Entry vs the low
- 378% above the low
- low $19 on Nov 21, 2025
- Max drop since entry
- −36%
- May 13 → Jun 1, 2026
- Current price
- $82
- −7% from entry
The journey
Trade 1
LongEntry to peak +165%Ranked tradeClosed +109%Opened position
Long AAOIEntry: $88Close P&L: +109%Apr 2, 2026, 02:31 UTC
@crux_capital_ What don’t kills us makes us stronger. Send it, I’ll be averaging up at those prices.
Added to position · 4 times
Long AAOIAvg price: $172Close P&L: +109%May 8, 2026, 05:28 UTC to Jun 1, 2026, 21:54 UTC
Show all 4 trades
Added at $146May 8, 2026, 05:28 UTC
The market sold $AAOI off 11% for missing EPS by two cents (?). I’m buying the dip. The miss was $0.02. The company raised >$200M in equity and deployed $68.7M in CapEx in a single quarter building factories. You have to spend money to make money. This is a company investing ahead of the largest revenue ramp in its history. Q1 delivered record revenue for the fourth consecutive quarter. $151.1M. Up 51% YoY. Up 13% sequentially. Management is explicitly saying demand is not the constraint – capacity is. Their internal demand number is $1.4-1.5B for 2026. They guided to $1.1B because that’s what their factories can physically produce. Q2 guidance: $180-198M. Another 30% sequential step up. Then Q3: management guided 60-80% sequential growth over Q2. Q4 similar to Q3. By mid-2027, $471M per month of data center transceiver revenue – $5.6B annualized from one product category. The capacity ramp: 800G: 138K/month today → 420K/month by Q4 2026 → 550K/month by mid-2027. 1.6T: 10K/month today → 230K/month by Q4 2026 → 380K/month by Q4 2027. ELSFP for CPO: starting Q4 2026 at 5K/month → 400K/month by Q4 2027. Management confirmed an industry-wide InP laser shortage that will “persist and get more acute” with the advent of CPO. This directly validates the $SIVE and $LITE supply chain opportunity. When the CFO of one of the largest transceiver manufacturers in the world says InP laser shortage is getting more acute – that’s primary source confirmation that the external laser market is structurally undersupplied. The compression today is entirely a product mix transition. 400G making way for 800G and 1.6T, both of which carry meaningfully higher margins. Management is calling last quarter’s $200M order announcement “SMALL” compared to what’s to come. Full year 2026 guidance: >$1.1B revenue, >$140M non-GAAP operating income. To be honest, I’m usually the most bullish person in the room but these guys are on something else. They know demand exceeds supply through mid-2027, and they will make the most out of it. Two risks worth naming. Customer concentration (don’t do us a POET) – three customers are 98% of revenue. Management fairy dust sniffing – the company has a historical pattern of promising large ramps and delivering them late. Added to my position on the dip. I’m long $AAOI. (NFA)
Added at $173May 11, 2026, 14:18 UTC Retrospective trade
@aleabitoreddit I sized up big on the 140 drop. I had to thank the algos for making me easy money.
Added at $185Jun 1, 2026, 16:40 UTC Retrospective trade
$AAOI I shared this Call Option with my subs on Friday at 11:30am for AAOI close to the bottom for the day. My calls were 6 months out, nothing too risky... They are up 55%, and the stock is up almost 19%. Trading momentum means following the news closely. Big catalysts and short-term bottoms help a lot. Big risk with big reward. Still learning how to play call options correctly, but I'm learning fast and doing it out in the open. Calls are only 5% of my port, but I'm building myself up for them to be up to 20-30%.
Added at $185Jun 1, 2026, 21:54 UTC Retrospective trade
This looks like a thrilling idea. Never “all in” like Kevin Cramer of course. Do options count for this challenge? Options feel like a cheat, bought AAOI at 155 on Friday and sold at 189 today. 155C 6 months out. 75% profit. Maybe stocks would be more fair for this challenge. It’s better to beat Kevin at his own game with stocks. Opinions? @CKCapitalxx
Closed position
Long AAOIExit: $185Close P&L: +109%Jun 1, 2026, 21:54 UTC
This looks like a thrilling idea. Never “all in” like Kevin Cramer of course. Do options count for this challenge? Options feel like a cheat, bought AAOI at 155 on Friday and sold at 189 today. 155C 6 months out. 75% profit. Maybe stocks would be more fair for this challenge. It’s better to beat Kevin at his own game with stocks. Opinions? @CKCapitalxx
Trade 2
LongEntry to peak +20%Closed −30%Opened position
Long AAOIEntry: $174Close P&L: −30%Jun 7, 2026, 14:46 UTC
Sunday morning intrusive thoughts... I'm usually really succinct with my posts here on Twitter because of the character constraint, and also because things change so fast that I never thought long research articles were worth it. But since the AI buildout began, the fundamentals haven't changed -- the main pillars remain the same. Thanks to a few key players on here, everyone is now talking about the supply chain, and we're all better for it. But as I've come to realize through my subscriber community -- where I reply to everyone one on one -- there are A LOT of people just riding the momentum without understanding why things are actually happening. For instance, I'm a lot more bullish on NAND than on HBM4, which is why my portfolio has more $SNDK than $MU. Or why I still bet on CPUs even though $INTC and $ARM forward P/E is astronomical. I've been saying since January that everything revolves around agentic AI -- not just AI. I always look at the application layer, at what actually gets used, not just at the supplier of the supplier of the supplier. I think that approach is easier to follow for newer and more timid investors. Everyone understands the application layer. Not everyone knows how it's being used to make hundreds of millions of dollars. I'll use that privileged position to share some insider knowledge into every major industry putting it to work. I'm going to take my time with my first Substack post. I'll start with the macro -- why the AI infrastructure buildout is real and why demand is insatiable, from a user's perspective, mapping the supply chain. Then I'll go into detail about the main themes and beneficiaries. There's a reason memory has been the biggest winner in my portfolio and will continue to do great, but you have to move faster than the market so we are now at the CPO, Power Semis, MLCC layers. Twitter will always be the quicker source -- the news, the actionable trades. But the fundamentals, the logic, the Sunday morning 30-minute read -- that belongs on Substack. We'll make money on here, but build a deeper understanding on Substack. That's how real conviction is made. That's why I'm fully invested in $AAOI $SIVE $SNDK $NBIS -- and some new gems I'm really excited about like $SHT, turnaround stories like an early-stage $AAOI which is $ADTN. Here's my Substack -- t.co/uITgRsBZic Nothing on it yet, but I can assure you I'll put my career's worth behind every piece. A few articles, once a week.
Added to position · 6 times
Long AAOIAvg price: $170Close P&L: −30%Jun 8, 2026, 14:42 UTC to Jun 25, 2026, 03:30 UTC
Show all 6 trades
Added at $197Jun 8, 2026, 14:42 UTC Retrospective trade
$AAOI boy I’m glad I added to this Friday DIP. 170 levels for this American Beauty? You have no idea how high we are going. t.co/zMypFrPprq
Added at $166Jun 9, 2026, 20:21 UTC
Added at $165Jun 9, 2026, 21:35 UTC
Yeah you don’t own enough $AAOI It keeps dropping? I keep adding t.co/dpEXfatLaX
Added at $167Jun 10, 2026, 03:37 UTC
This was me today after a long day at work and a port at -10%. At least I bought some good names… $MRVL and $AAOI t.co/XeAosJKYXP
Added at $169Jun 23, 2026, 02:26 UTC
It has been one month since I created the sub, oh it has been so much fun. I get to use X as a personal think tank. Most ideas are solid, some are just shit posts… we even have little birds dropping hints… Fun stuff! Now, as the community we are, the sub is doing a swing challenge, one stock at a time. Of course I’m not saying it’s an all in challenge since it’s a small percentage of our overall portfolio. In the best way possible, we are sharing alpha and challenging ourselves. The top 3 spots get a reward, if they can beat me to first place. I’m sure they will, people here are on another level. Anyway! I’ll be sharing on the main timeline our weekly ranking. I began the challenge today with $10,000 into $AAOI at 156.47 Let’s see how we roll ⚡️
Added at $154Jun 25, 2026, 03:30 UTC
I'm long $AAOI. This is one of the fastest growing companies in the whole space, and the fact that it's trading -35% from its ATH is just a gift I can't pass up. I've doubled down on my position and averaged up. AAOI is one of my largest holdings. I've been in this name since 40, doubled down at 80, saw it go to ATH at 230 and now we're back at 145. Yeah, it's a high beta stock. The AI buildoutThe AI buildout rotates across layers. Right now it's memory's turn. Does that mean the pure photonics plays are done? Not in the slightest. AAOI went through a complete makeover, from a sleepy CATV supplier to one of the fastest growing names in the space. And the revenue is going vertical: Revenue going vertical: Q2 guided to $180-198M, a 19-31% jump in one quarter. Full-year 2026 over $1.1 billion, up 141%. 800G shipped first volume to a major hyperscaler in Q1, and the real ramp starts now. 1.6T orders already in hand. The edge nobody else has: AAOI grows its own laser chips in-house on MOCVD. The CEO's words: "MOCVD is on complete backlog." The rest of the industry waits in line for supply. AAOI makes its own. The constraint isn't demand. It's factories. Management confirmed demand exceeds supply through at least mid-2027. When supply is the bottleneck, you don't sell product, you allocate scarce capacity to whoever pays most. The ramp shows how serious they are: 100K units/month exiting Q1, 650K+ by year-end, 930K+ by 2027. The risks are real, customer concentration is extreme, it's volatile, it's priced for perfection. But none of that matters when hyperscalers buy every unit you can make. That $230 ATH is just a stepping stone. I broke the whole thing down on my Substack, valuation, the concentration math, the CPO transition, the 3.2T roadmap, a 12-month price target. You can redeem a free paid post. Go check it out. t.co/vQBYY7sY8r I'm long $AAOI. ⚡️
Trimmed position
Long AAOIPrice: $89Close P&L: −30%Jul 29, 2026, 05:16 UTC
Added to position
Long AAOIPrice: $113Close P&L: −30%Aug 4, 2026, 05:37 UTC
Closed position
Long AAOIExit: $122Close P&L: −30%Aug 6, 2026, 22:45 UTC
ALL IN CHALLENGE #3 WAS A SUCCESS!! 3/3 successful trades, 37% compounded. $CAT +11% $ALAB +13% (half before ER, half after) $AAOI 129.08 to 140.10, +9% For $AAOI I gave you the setup plan step by step a day before in the subs. I didn't just say buy and sell. I told you when t.co/CRZUEqLopK
Trade 3
LongEntry to peak +30%Current return −34%Opened position
Long AAOIEntry: $124Current return: −34%Aug 7, 2026, 01:11 UTC
$AAOI W take by Gaetano. This guy sure knows his stuff. Good thing I’m long and heavy. Bullish $AAOI t.co/h0TldSEbcr
Trimmed position · 4 times
Long AAOIAvg price: $108Current return: −34%Aug 7, 2026, 01:19 UTC to Sep 16, 2026, 19:28 UTC
Show all 4 trades
Trimmed at $124, 0% from entryAug 7, 2026, 01:19 UTC
$AAOI Do you guys want to see market manipulation at its finest? Be wary of who own the names you hold. LOOK AT THAT VOLUME. Thanks mister JS MM, for making me be able to time the top. t.co/6HAghG4aQd
Trimmed at $112, −9% from entryAug 22, 2026, 03:39 UTC
Trimmed at $100, −19% from entrySep 3, 2026, 19:22 UTC
Subs - Full Portfolio Update . . . Portfolio size 134% -> 97.5% / 2.5% is cash REWEIGHTED NBIS 33.4% -> 20% SNDK 20.4% -> 15% MU 5.9% -> 10% AMD 4.4% -> 8% BE 0.7% -> 8% LITE 8.8% -> 7% MRVL 2.2% -> 5% AAOI 9.3% -> 3% GLW 2.2% -> 3% TSEM 1.5% t.co/IFdGS4gaix
Trimmed at $97, −22% from entrySep 16, 2026, 19:28 UTC
Every trade on the chart
Hover a marker for the trade, click to jump to it.
Drag across the strip to zoom. Double-click it, or pick All, to see everything.
More journeys on $AAOI
Serenity
+542%Went long $AAOI at $36, 97% above the run's low. The trade is up 126% from entry.
Read the journey
Daniel Romero
+426%Went long $AAOI at $44, 140% above the run's low. The trade is up 85% from entry.
Read the journey
Ariel Hernandez
+412%Went long $AAOI at $46, 147% above the run's low. The trade is up 80% from entry.
Read the journeyCatch the next run early.See where the best traders are positioned now.
- Track records for the world’s best traders on X and Telegram, ranked by results
- Live positioning on 30,000+ positions across 1,800 assets
- Long vs short on every asset, showing where the best traders lean
- Positioning Intelligence: Smart Money, Trending, Early Opportunities, Specialist Ideas, Crowd Fade and the Leaders Book
Trades from the Centaur API, refreshed hourly. Prices: Yahoo Finance. How Centaur records trades