Teng Yan

Teng Yan

@tengyanAI

Jan 18, 2026, 14:21 UTC

some weekend thoughts: crypto entering 2026 with this much apathy is exactly what I want to see. my contrarian bet is that 2025's weakness/reset has set the stage for crypto outperformance in 2026. look at the consensus positioning today: gold/silver = the debasement hedge. equities esp MAG7+AI stocks = default growth exposure crypto = noisy, lack of innovation, weighed down by regulation + security risk. you can even see mainstream framing shifting toward long-horizon existential fears (quantum) as justification to rotate away from BTC and into gold. I think that consensus is getting too comfortable. Viewpoints that I’m fading: - BTC *failed* the currency debasement hedge test -> BTC sensitive to liquidity factors too - “Institutions already arrived, so upside is capped” -> I think the pool of potential allocators is still far larger than people assume - Influencers publicly stating they will be spending much less time in crypto -> imo a counter sentiment signal, and an over-compensation for 2025's gold/equity run. Catalysts for 2026: - crypto tends to do best when financial conditions ease and risk appetite is rewarded: if 2026 features easing, a softer dollar, or a re-risking cycle, crypto’s sensitivity can produce outsized upside. - monetary conditions loosen without a disorderly growth shock. Equities may be constrained by valuation - crypto’s internal fundamentals improve: Higher fee revenue on major networks, healthier market structure, and more visible cash-flow-like activity - legislation continues to favor crypto (rules on who can own and allocate). Policy clarity that makes institutional buying socially defendable and not a ‘career risk’. - stablecoins become the wedge product: more use in every day life = less stigma and more on-ramps I'll consider my thesis to be wrong IF: - gold keeps capturing the debasement trade through sustained central bank demand, sidelining BTC. - a genuine risk-off shock forces global deleveraging - a credibility break: major exploit or systemic blow-up that resets trust Here's how I’m expressing my view (core → tactical) Core holdings (accumulate through the year): 1. BTC - easier financial conditions + improved risk appetite + debasement optionality 2. Crypto-related equities - COIN > HOOD 3. ETH - the chain remains top option for high-value tokenized settlement + collateral for on-chain credit. but value accrual to ETH remains murky so i'm less convicted of this Tactical (needs constant reevaluation): 1. Revenue-generating businesses with clear value accrual to tokens (HYPE, BNB etc). will need to continually observe data on quality/sustainability of revenues. 2. Privacy - private money narrative is strengthening, but highly path-dependent 3. Keep using cool, new tokenless products - it's hard to predict what will really take off this year, but you get early signals from trying new apps. i'm keeping a close eye on AI and robotics. also think consumer AI apps could also be a dark horse. new airdrops remain +EV. if nothing breaks in 2026, crypto reflexivity could really surprise the skeptics. onwards!