Jonah Lupton

Jonah Lupton

@JonahLupton

May 9, 2026, 14:07 UTC

More thoughts on $TMDX -- management continues to reiterate their goal of 20k cases by 2030... management has said that CHOPS (cold perfusion) was not part of that prior target... personally I think CHOPS can increase that case number by 10-20%... using the midpoint... that implies the new target for 2030 could be 23k... in order to go from 5,139 cases in 2025 to 23,000 cases in 2030... that would be a 35% CAGR over 5 years There's just no way that $TMDX should be trading at 3x NTM revs and 2.5x 2027 revs if $TMDX is going to grow case volumes (with OCS and CHOPS) by 35% over the next 5 years. Which means... either $TMDX is now a generational buying opportunity for investors or $TMDX management is being too bullish/aggressive with their targets and won't be able to achieve 20-23k cases by 2030. Keeping this simple... based on 2025 full year numbers... the average OCS case (based off 5,139 cases) cost $117,825 (based off $605.5M revenues)... I think this number comes down by approximately 25% over the next 5 years as they introduce CHOPS, OCS Kidney and scale across Europe... that would put the average case at $88,369 in 5 years... if we use 21,500 cases in 2030 as the midpoint... implies revenues for 2030 could be in the ballpark of $1.9B That would be a 25.7% revenue CAGR over 5 years (2025 through 2030)... the funny part is that net income margins are down this year but will bounce back over the next 5 years... and will be a significant tailwind for EPS growth... which means if revenues are growing at a 25.7% CAGR for 5 years (2025 through 2030)... then EPS could be growing at a 35-45% CAGR for 4+ years (2026 through 2030)... using sell side estimates of $75M of net income for 2026 and using my estimates of $437M of net income in 2030 (ie 23% net income margins on $1.9B of revenues)... that's a 42.3% CAGR from 2026 through 2030. Analysts think net income margins bounce back to 15% next year... I still think $TMDX can do $950M revenues next year because we'll have OCS 2.0 heart trials plus OCS Kidney plus CHOPS plus contributions from Europe... in which case $TMDX would do approx $143M of net income in CY2027... which means $TMDX is now trading at 16x 2027 eps with the potential to grow eps at a 42% CAGR for the next 4+ years (through 2030). We added to our position yesterday and will keep adding at these depressed/discounted prices. Waleed started $TMDX more than 25 years ago... this is his baby and he's making decisions/investments now that will pay off over the next 5-10 years... it's obviously quite painful to hold stocks like $TMDX during heavy investment cycles but nothing with my long-term investment thesis has changed... at some point the market will start to see the results of these investments and the stock price will be much higher. Thankfully we have more than 40% of our fund in ai/dc related stocks like @SKHynix $NBIS $CRDO $MU $ALAB $IREN $AAOI $LITE $COHR $CIFR $BE $FLNC and others so we can afford to be patient on names like $TMDX $MELI $APP $NU $HROW which are causing some pain in the short term. I'm still a long-term investor... always trying to position our portfolio/fund to generate the best returns over the next 2-3 years... willing to be patient on high-conviction names that are being discounted by the market... which creates a great opportunity to accumulate shares. NFA. DYOR. *I own $TMDX personally and so does @FirstWaveFund Have a nice weekend!!!